AFLC Home Missions Director
Visits Baldwin

     Should we not be thinking about a Lutheran church in north Baldwin he asked. That's how Pastor Paul Nash's visit really started. Ernie Burnett, Charlie Canning, and Pastor Dave Johnson from Zion Lutheran Church of Silverhill welcomed Pastor Paul Nash at the Fairhope airport this past week. Pastor Nash, Director of Home Missions for the Association of Free Lutheran Congregations (AFLC), had come to explore spiritual needs emerging in the area north of I-10 in Baldwin County. The AFLC is the fourth largest Lutheran church group in the United States.

     Ernie Burnett and Charlie Canning from Zion Lutheran Church of Silverhill welcomed Pastor Paul Nash (r to l) at the Fairhope airport this past week. Pastor Nash, Director of Home Missions for the Association of Free Lutheran Congregations, had come at the invitation of the Zion church to explore potential congregational needs emerging in the area north of I-10.

     Pastor Nash's visit was the result of a conversation. The topic of that conversation was the ongoing growth in Baldwin County. Some of this growth related to Mobile, e.g., ship-building again becoming a part of the economy, the building of the German steel plant in north Mobile County, and the recent winning of a contract to build air-tankers. Ernie rather innocently raised the question during that conversation, Should we not be thinking about a Lutheran church in north Baldwin That was the impetus for the visit this past week from Pastor Paul Nash.

     After touring existing and projected growth areas of Baldwin County north of Spanish Fort to Bay Minette and south from Bay Minette to Loxley, Pastor Paul Nash, Director of Home Missions, Association of Free Lutheran Congregations, met with the Church Council of Zion Lutheran Church of Silverhill. Ernie Burnett, Council Chair Peter Midgarden, Pastor Nash, Charles Canning, and Becky Vasko (clockwise from 7:00) discussed emerging spiritual needs in Baldwin County. Church Councilman Mack Gibbs (not pictured) was off camera to the right.

     Zion's Ernie Burnett, Charlie Canning, and Pastor Dave Johnson met Pastor Paul at the Fairhope airport and toured the areas of new dynamic growth north of Spanish Fort to Bay Minette and on back to Loxley. What followed afterward in Silverhill was a long and deep conversation as Pastor Nash met with the Zion Church Council concerning God's direction for church growth north of I-10. The Council presented data concerning Baldwin and the communities which are growing. Significant from a Lutheran viewpoint is that there are currently nine Lutheran parishes in Baldwin, none in the area between I-10 and I-65, at least via Google.

     When the Council concluded its meeting with Pastor Nash, the congregation was encouraged to continue in prayer to seek the Lord's specific leading in encouraging a mission congregation north of I-10. The Zion congregation will seek to network with Lutherans in this developing area to determine if there is a desire to begin a church-planting dialog with residents. St. Paul, the great missionary of the New Testament, followed the routes of trade and commerce. In terms of applying that strategy to Baldwin County, churches should be encouraging congregations along those highways that link the population centers of South and Central Baldwin with Bay Minette.

Pastor Paul Talks about
Church Planting with Council
April 17, 2008

     Here's a snapshot of the conversation Pastor Paul Nash, AFLC Home Missions, and the Church Council carried on:

     Historically in the late 80s and early 90s, the Council advised Pastor Paul, Zion Lutheran Church was directly or indirectly involved with at least three and maybe four different church plants. All of them were south of I-10. Nobody was looking north at the time. As the Church Council shared economic growth and population projections for Baldwin County, Pastor Paul asked just one thing of the Zion congregation: "Would you at Zion pray about what the Lord wants in Baldwin County?" Why would Pastor Paul ask a thing like that? Could it be scriptural Remembering the Zion outreach work in the late 80s and early 90s, don’t you just arrange a place, get a bunch of hymnals, and just go?

     The answer from Pastor Paul's perspective is obviously "no." "We want to be where God wants us to be. We need to pray for His direction and fit into His plans," Pastor Paul would say. The congregation at Zion has been praying. Pastor Paul visited the congregation to get a sense of what is happening here and how the AFLC may serve the area where we see growth and believe God desires an orthodox, Lutheran congregation. He noted that, "We (AFLC Home Missions) are receiving numbers of requests from coastal areas to help establish Bible-centered churches." He explained that the East Coast, the West Coast, AND the Gulf Coast comprise the area of most interest in new churches, far outstripping the center regions of the United States.

     What information did we bring to the table with Pastor Paul, besides our prayers and the sense of God's leading Here's a quick summary of what we gleaned and shared:

     Socio-economic data for Baldwin County reveals dynamic growth. As part of a seven county area clustered around Mobile, Alabama, Baldwin is among the fastest growing counties in Alabama. When we compare its general growth with those of other counties in the region, we discover that it is growing at a faster rate than its peers according to US Census data, and is reportedly on schedule to exceed the current population leader, Mobile County, in less than ten years. It exceeds Hancock, Harrison, Jackson, Mobile, Escambia (FL), and Okaloosa Counties in terms of growth rates and is second only to Santa Rosa County.

     In terms of development, the county may be divided into several population regions which are developing at different rates. Based on data developed by the University of Alabama, the southern part of the county from Gulf Shores to around Foley is projected to grow at 87.7% by 2020; the area from Foley to I-10 including Robertsdale and Silverhill, is expected to grow at a 63.1% rate; and the area of the Eastern Shore is expected to grow at a 55.2% rate. North of I-10 to I-65, an area including County Seat Bay Minette, growth is anticipated to be at a 33.3% rate. The area north of I-65 is virtually unpopulated at this point, but is expected to grow at a 35.9% rate. Overall, Baldwin County will grow at a 62.2% rate by 2020.

     A cursory view of population projections suggests that growth will occur most dramatically where existing population already resides. The areas closest to the Gulf and the Bay already have substantial populations with Central Baldwin having a lesser but still substantial population. Except for Bay Minette north of the I-10 corridor, the more northern portions of the county are essentially undeveloped.

     Major growth in population centers of Fairhope, Foley, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, and Robertsdale, has occurred, but closer analysis shows something else. Urban development outside of these communities or between communities, has been the rule. These communities may be growing, but they are growing by annexing adjacent rural areas, primarily along transportation corridors connecting the communities.

     A recent conversation with Bob Higgins with the Baldwin County Economic Development Alliance in Robertsdale, suggests that the area on the north side of the Eastern Shore and the area west of Bay Minette is going to rapidly develop. On the south side of this region, an area called “the Triangle” by local planners, there will be rapid housing development. Bay Minette itself will expand.

     The number of housing units anticipated by 2020 reflects indirectly the actual population of Baldwin County. The number of households projected suggests Baldwin County growth at over 300,000 people by 2020. This population will be primarily south of and west of Bay Minette.

     The business climate in the county is good. Chamber of Commerce data from its website demonstrate that Baldwin has a broad variety of manufacturing, centered near population centers. Next door in Mobile County, local news release information reveal that shipping, ship-building, steel manufacturing, and air plane construction are either currently underway or will be in the near future. Our average resident is in his 40s. One third of our population has some college education. Our average household income is approximately $50,000 per year..